4 steps · 3 min
Scenario Planner
Think through your decision by exploring what could happen
Describe it in a sentence or two. Be specific.
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Your input stays private and is not stored
Think through your decision by exploring what could happen
Describe it in a sentence or two. Be specific.
Your input stays private and is not stored
Scenario planning is a strategic method for making decisions under uncertainty. Instead of trying to predict the one future that will happen (impossible for complex decisions), you explore multiple plausible futures and prepare for each. This approach was developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s and has since been adopted by organizations and individuals worldwide.
This tool guides you through structured scenario analysis in three steps:
1. Define your scenarios: Describe what best, likely, and worst case outcomes look like for your specific decision.
2. Assess each scenario: Rate the likelihood, how you'd feel, and whether you could recover from each outcome.
3. Get AI-powered analysis: Receive personalized insights, a preparation checklist, and a regret-minimization framework to guide your decision.
Career decisions: Job offers, promotions, career changes, starting a business
Financial decisions: Major purchases, investments, moving to a new city
Relationship decisions: Commitment, relocation for a partner, difficult conversations
Life transitions: Education choices, retirement timing, major lifestyle changes
Research in decision science shows that humans are poor at predicting single outcomes but can effectively prepare for ranges of possibilities. Jeff Bezos popularized the “regret minimization framework”—asking which choice you'd regret least at age 80. This tool combines scenario planning with regret minimization to help you think clearly.
The preparation checklist is based on implementation intentions research, which shows that specific “if-then” plans dramatically increase follow-through compared to vague goals or wishes.